Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Are Domestic Terrorists A Bigger Threat Than Foreign Terrorists?

What follows are a series of clips and snippets of articles concerning domestic terrorism and specifically focusing on the Militia movement to which some veterans returning home from war are being recruited. The question put to me by a friend was are these really domestic terrorist groups? I believe it is fair to say that not all militia group are radically anti-government hate groups, but some are. That is my considered opinion. But it is important for all of us to look at the evidence, some of which is presented below, and draw our own conclusions. I would encourage readers to do their own research and post their findings and URL links to the material in the comment section below. - Brian T. Lynch, MSW

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Sovereign citizen movement perceived as top terrorist threat

New study assesses top threats, preparedness among law enforcement

July 30, 2014 Jessica Rivinius
Sovereign citizen, Islamist extremist and militia/patriot groups are perceived by law enforcement agencies to pose the greatest threats to their communities, according to a new START study.  While sovereign citizens were the top concern of law enforcement, assessments about whether most groups were a serious terrorist threat actually declined for most groups (e.g., the KKK; Christian Identity; Neo-Nazis; Racist Skinheads; Environmental Extremists; Animal Rights Extremists) when compared to a previous study.

START researchers David CarterSteven ChermakJeremy Carter and Jack Drew recently conducted in-depth surveys with more than 364 officers representing 175 state, local and tribal (SLT) law enforcement agencies to examine perceptions of: the threat of terrorism; the nature of information-sharing; and whether agencies are prepared to deal with terrorist attacks. Their results are published in “Understanding Law Enforcement Intelligence Processes,” available on START’s website.

The Daily Banter - Militias And Sovereign Citizen Groups Are A Greater Combined Terror Threat Than Islamic Jihad
The National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)reported that law enforcement officials no longer consider Islamic terrorists as the number one source of terrorism inside the U.S. According to the study, the top three most critical terrorist threats in 2013-14 are: 3) Militia / Patriot groups, 2) Islamic Extremists/Jihadists, and 1) Sovereign Citizen groups. (Rounding out the top five are skinheads at #4 and neo-Nazis at #5. Incidentally, these two groups predominantly represented the “right-wing extremists” in Homeland Security’s outrage-inducing report about domestic terrorism. Odd that so many run-of-the-mill conservatives were upset about Nazis and skinheads being labeled terrorists.)
That’s right, the Militia/Patriot movement and the Sovereign Citizen groups are viewed by law enforcement officials as a greater combined domestic threat than Islamic terrorists. And by the way, it’s important to reiterate that this isn’t a poll of random people, not unlike Gallup or any of the other outfits. The nonpartisan START researchers surveyed 364 law enforcement officers from 175 agencies.

http://thedailybanter.com/2014/08/militias-sovereign-citizen-groups-greater-combined-terror-threat-islamic-jihad/

Anti-Defimation League - Are militia groups dangerous?

From its beginnings, a large amount of criminal activity has been associated with the militia movement. A number of members have been arrested on weapons, explosives, or conspiracy charges, among others. These arrests continue to the current day. So physically the movement remains dangerous, although obviously no one can be painted as a would-be terrorist simply because they belong to a militia group.

There are dangers other than direct physical dangers, of course. The militia movement is a very anti-government movement which advocates taking the law (and a very particular vision of the law, at that) into its own hands. It is not only heavily armed, but it preaches an extreme anti-government rhetoric filled with wild conspiracy theories. In addition, although the main emphasis of the militia movement is anti-government in nature, a number of people in the movement are also white supremacists and/or anti-Semites (esp. Christian Identity), and this is obviously an area of concern.

http://archive.adl.org/mcveigh/faq.html#.U-F9WPldUhs


FBI - Domestic Terrorism
Focus on Militia Extremism


Last March, nine members of an extremist militia group were charged in Michigan with seditious conspiracy and attempted use of weapons of mass destruction in connection with an alleged plot to attack law enforcement and spark an uprising against the government.

According to the federal indictment, the nine individuals planned to kill a law enforcement officer and then use bombs to attack the caravan of cars taking part in the subsequent funeral procession, hoping that this violence would incite a larger armed conflict with authorities. Fortunately, the FBI and the Michigan State Police intervened and took the subjects into custody before they could carry out their alleged plot.

It’s just one example of the dangers posed by so-called militia extremists—the latest topic in our series to educate the nation on domestic terror threats that the FBI investigates today. Previous stories have focused on anarchist extremistseco-terrorists/animal rights extremistslone offenders, and sovereign citizen extremists.

Who they are. Like many domestic terrorism groups, militia extremists are anti-government. What sets them apart is that they’re often organized into paramilitary groups that follow a military-style rank hierarchy. They tend to stockpile illegal weapons and ammunition, trying illegally to get their hands on fully automatic firearms or attempting to convert weapons to fully automatic. They also try to buy or manufacture improvised explosive devices and typically engage in wilderness, survival, or other paramilitary training
http://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2011/september/militia_092211

Southern Poverty Law Center - Violence and Criminal Activity of Militia Groups

from 1995 - 2011
The following are clear examples of incidents involving militia movement members or former members.

November 9, 1995
Oklahoma Constitutional Militia leader Willie Ray Lampley, his wife Cecilia and another man, John Dare Baird, are arrested as they prepare explosives to bomb numerous targets, including the Southern Poverty Law Center, gay bars and abortion clinics. The three, along with another suspect arrested later, are sentenced to terms of up to 11 years in 1996. Cecilia Lampley is released in 2000, while Baird and Willie Lampley — who wrote letters from prison urging others to violence — are freed in 2004 and 2006, respectively.

 November 9, 1995
Oklahoma Constitutional Militia leader Willie Ray Lampley, his wife Cecilia and another man, John Dare Baird, are arrested as they prepare explosives to bomb numerous targets, including the Southern Poverty Law Center, gay bars and abortion clinics. The three, along with another suspect arrested later, are sentenced to terms of up to 11 years in 1996. Cecilia Lampley is released in 2000, while Baird and Willie Lampley — who wrote letters from prison urging others to violence — are freed in 2004 and 2006, respectively.

July 1, 1996
Twelve members of an Arizona militia group called the Viper Team are arrested on federal conspiracy, weapons and explosive charges after allegedly surveilling and videotaping government buildings as potential targets. All 12 plead guilty or are convicted of various charges, drawing sentences of up to nine years in prison. The plot participants are all released in subsequent years. Gary Curds Baer, who drew the heaviest sentence after being found with 400 pounds of ammonium nitrate, a bomb component, is freed in May 2004.

July 29, 1996
Washington State Militia leader John Pitner and seven others are arrested on weapons and explosives charges in connection with a plot to build pipe bombs to resist a feared invasion by the United Nations. Pitner and four others are convicted on weapons charges, while conspiracy charges against all eight end in a mistrial. Pitner is later retried on that charge, convicted and sentenced to four years in prison. He is released in 2001

October 11, 1996
Seven members of the Mountaineer Militia are arrested in a plot to blow up the FBI's national fingerprint records center, where 1,000 people work, in West Virginia. In 1998, leader Floyd "Ray" Looker is sentenced to 18 years in prison. He is released in June 2012. Two other defendants are sentenced on explosives charges and a third draws a year in prison for providing blueprints of the FBI facility to Looker, who then sold them to a government informant who was posing as a terrorist.

March 26, 1997

Militia activist Brendon Blasz is arrested in Kalamazoo, Mich., and charged with making pipe bombs and other illegal explosives. Prosecutors say Blasz plotted to bomb the federal building in Battle Creek, the IRS building in Portage, a Kalamazoo television station and federal armories. But they recommend leniency on his explosives conviction after Blasz, a member of the Michigan Militia Corps Wolverines, renounces his antigovernment beliefs and cooperates with them. He is sentenced to more than three years in federal prison and released in late 1999.

April 27, 1997
After a cache of explosives stored in a tree blows up near Yuba City, Calif., police arrest Montana Freemen supporter William Robert Goehler. Investigators looking into the blast arrest two Goehler associates, one of them a militia leader, after finding 500 pounds of explosives — enough to level three city blocks — in a motor home parked outside their residence. Six others are arrested on related charges. Goehler, with previous convictions for rape, burglary and assault, is sentenced to 25 years to life in prison. He is later accused of stabbing his attorney with a shank and charged with attacking prison psychologists.

July 4, 1997
Militiaman Bradley Playford Glover and another heavily armed antigovernment activist are arrested before dawn near Fort Hood, in central Texas, just hours before they planned to invade the Army base and slaughter foreign troops they mistakenly believed were housed there. In the next few days, five other people are arrested in several states for their alleged roles in the plot to invade a series of military bases where the group believes United Nations forces are massing for an assault on Americans. All seven are part of a splinter group from the Third Continental Congress, a kind of militia government-in-waiting. In the end, Glover is sentenced to two years on Kansas weapons charges, to be followed by a five-year federal term in connection with the Fort Hood plot. The others draw lesser terms. Glover is released in 2003, the last of the seven to get out.

March 18, 1998
Three members of the North American Militia of Southwestern Michigan are arrested on firearms and other charges. Prosecutors say the men conspired to bomb federal buildings, a Kalamazoo television station and an interstate highway interchange, kill federal agents, assassinate politicians and attack aircraft at a National Guard base — attacks that were all to be funded by marijuana sales. The group's leader, Ken Carter, is a self-described member of the neo-Nazi Aryan Nations. Carter pleads guilty, testifies against his former comrades, and is sentenced to five years in prison. The others, Randy Graham and Bradford Metcalf, go to trial and are ultimately handed sentences of 40 and 55 years, respectively. Carter is released from prison in 2002.

December 5, 1999
Two California men, both members of the San Joaquin Militia, are charged with conspiracy in connection with a plot to blow up two 12-million-gallon propane tanks, a television tower and an electrical substation in hopes of provoking an insurrection. In 2001, the former militia leader, Donald Rudolph, pleads guilty to plotting to kill a federal judge and blow up the propane tanks, and testifies against his former comrades. Kevin Ray Patterson and Charles Dennis Kiles are ultimately convicted of several charges in connection with the conspiracy. In 2002, Patterson is sentenced to 24 years and five months in prison; Kiles to 22 years.

December 8, 1999
Donald Beauregard, head of a militia coalition known as the Southeastern States Alliance, is charged with conspiracy, providing materials for a terrorist act and gun violations in a plot to bomb energy facilities and cause power outages in Florida and Georgia. After pleading guilty to several charges, Beauregard, who once claimed to have discovered a secret map detailing a planned UN takeover mistakenly printed on a box of Trix cereal, is sentenced to five years in federal prison. He is released in 2004, a year after accomplice James Troy Diver is freed following a similar conviction.

March 9, 2000
Federal agents arrest Mark Wayne McCool, the one-time leader of the Texas Militia and Combined Action Program, as he allegedly makes plans to attack the Houston federal building. McCool, who is arrested after buying powerful C-4 plastic explosives and an automatic weapon from an undercover FBI agent, earlier plotted to attack the federal building with a member of his own group and a member of the antigovernment Republic of Texas, but those two men eventually abandoned the plot. McCool, however, remained convinced the UN had stored a cache of military materiel in the building. In the end, he pleads guilty to federal charges that bring him just six months in jail.

February 8, 2002
The leader of a militia-like group known as Project 7 and his girlfriend are arrested after an informant tells police the group is plotting to kill judges and law enforcement officers in order to kick off a revolution. David Burgert, who has a record for burglary and is already wanted for assaulting police officers, is found in the house of girlfriend Tracy Brockway along with an arsenal that includes pipe bombs and 25,000 rounds of ammunition. Also found are “intel sheets” with personal information about law enforcement officers, their spouses and children. Although officials are convinced the Project 7 plot was real, Burgert ultimately is convicted only of weapons charges, draws a seven-year sentence and is released in March 2010. Six others are also convicted of, or plead guilty to, weapons charges. Brockway gets a suspended sentence for harboring a fugitive, and is sent to prison for violating its terms. She is released in early 2008. On June 21, 2011, sheriff’s deputies outside Missoula, Mont., stop Burgert on a suspicious vehicle report. Burgert leads them on a pursuit and fires multiple rounds at the deputies before fleeing on foot. He is wanted on two counts of attempted murder for the shootout, and his current whereabouts are unknown.

October 10, 2003
Police arrest Norman Somerville after finding a huge weapons cache on his property in northern Michigan that includes six machine guns, a powerful anti-aircraft gun, thousands of rounds of ammunition, hundreds of pounds of gunpowder, and an underground bunker. They also find two vehicles Somerville calls his “war wagons,” and on which prosecutors later say he planned to mount machine guns as part of a plan to stage an auto accident and then massacre arriving police. Officials describe Somerville as an antigovernment extremist enraged over the death of Scott Woodring, a Michigan Militia member killed by police a week after Woodring shot and killed a state trooper during a standoff. Somerville eventually pleads guilty to weapons charges and is sentenced to six years in prison. He is released in August 2009.

April 26, 2007
Five members of the Alabama Free Militia are arrested in north Alabama in a raid by federal and state law enforcement officers that uncovers a cache of 130 homemade hand grenades, an improvised grenade launcher, a Sten Mark submachine gun, a silencer, 2,500 rounds of ammunition and almost 100 marijuana plants. Raymond Kirk Dillard, the founder and “commander” of the group, pleads guilty to criminal conspiracy, illegally making and possessing destructive devices and being a felon in possession of a firearm. Other members of the group — Bonnell “Buster” Hughes, James Ray McElroy, Adam Lynn Cunningham and Randall Garrett Cole— also plead guilty to related charges. Although Dillard, who complained about the collapse of the American economy, terrorist attacks and Mexicans taking over the country, reportedly told his troops to open fire on federal agents if ever confronted, no shots are fired during the April raid, and the “commander” even points out booby-trap tripwires on his property to investigators. Dillard draws the harshest sentence, and is released in May 2012. Cole is released in December 2009; Cunningham in June 2009; Hughes in January 2009; and McElroy in August 2010.
June 8, 2008
Six people, most of them tied to the militia movement, are arrested in rural north-central Pennsylvania after officials find stockpiles of assault rifles, improvised explosives and homemade weapons, at least some of them apparently intended for use in terrorist attacks on U.S. officials. Agents find 16 homemade bombs during a search of the residence of Pennsylvania Citizens Militia recruiter Bradley T. Kahle, who allegedly tells authorities that he intended to shoot black people from a rooftop in Pittsburgh and also predicts civil war if either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton is elected president. A raid on the property of Morgan Jones results in the seizure of 73 weapons, including a homemade flame thrower, a machine that supposedly shot bolts of electricity, and an improvised cannon. Also arrested and charged with weapons violations are Marvin E. Hall, his girlfriend Melissa Huet and Perry Landis, who allegedly tells undercover agents he wanted to kill Gov. Ed Rendell. Landis is sentenced in 2009 to time served plus two years of supervised release. Hall is sentenced in January 2010 to time served with three years of probation. Huet spends years trying to get the charges against her – helping a convicted felon possess a firearm – dismissed. In July 2013, federal prosecutors drop gun charges against her.

June 12, 2009
Shawna Forde — the executive director of Minutemen American Defense (MAD), an anti-immigrant vigilante group that conducts “citizen patrols” on the Arizona-Mexico border — is charged with two counts of first-degree murder for her role in the slayings of a Latino man and his 9-year-old daughter in Arivaca, Ariz. Forde orchestrated the May 30 home invasion because she believed the man was a narcotics trafficker and wanted to steal drugs and cash to fund her group. Authorities say the murders, including the killing of the child, were part of the plan. Also arrested and charged with murder are the alleged triggerman, MAD Operations Director Jason Eugene “Gunny” Bush, and Albert Robert Gaxiola, 42, a local member of MAD. Authorities say that Bush had ties to the neo-Nazi Aryan Nations in Idaho, and that Forde has spoken of recruiting its members. Forde is sentenced to death in February 2011, and Bush is sentenced to death in April 2011. Gaxiola is sentenced to life in prison.

March 27-28, 2010
Nine members of the Hutaree Militia are arrested in raids in Michigan, Ohio and Indiana, and are charged with seditious conspiracy and attempted use of weapons of mass destruction. The group, whose website said it was preparing for the imminent arrival of the anti-Christ, allegedly planned to murder a Michigan police officer, then use bombs and homemade missiles to kill other officers attending the funeral, all in a bid to set off a war with the government. Joshua Clough pleads guilty to a weapons charge in December 2011. A federal judge dismisses charges against seven members of the group during a trial in March 2012, saying their hatred of law enforcement did not amount to a conspiracy. Militia leader David Stone and his son Joshua Stone plead guilty to gun charges two days after the trial. In August 2012, a federal judge chooses not to send the Stones back to prison. They are each fined $100 and placed on two years’ supervision. Another member, Jacob Ward, is acquitted in 2012.

November 1, 2011
Four members of an unnamed North Georgia militia are arrested in an alleged plot to bomb federal buildings, attack Atlanta and other cities with deadly ricin, and murder law enforcement officials. The men – Frederick Thomas, 73, Samuel J. Crump, 68, Dan Roberts, 67, and Ray H. Adams, 65 – allegedly discussed "taking out" a list of officials to "make the country right again" and scouted buildings in Atlanta to bomb. Authorities say the plot was inspired by an online novel, Absolved, written by longtime Alabama militiaman Mike Vanderboegh. Thomas, the accused ringleader, and Roberts plead guilty in April 2012 to charges of conspiring to possess explosives and firearms. Each is sentenced in August 2012 to five years in federal prison for conspiring to obtain an unregistered explosive device. Crump and Adams are convicted in January 2014 of conspiring to produce a toxic agent to poison government officials. 


December 10, 2011
Four Army soldiers at Fort Stewart, Ga., later identified as members of the terror group Forever Enduring, Always Ready (FEAR), are arrested in the murder of 19-year-old former soldier and FEAR member Michael Roark and his 17-year-old girlfriend, Tiffany York. The two were apparently killed because FEAR leader Isaac Aguigui, 22, feared Roark would talk about the group’s plans to take over the Army base, overthrow the government, assassinate a future president, and blow up a dam and poison the apple crop in the state of Washington. Pfc. Aguigui funded the group, buying $87,000 in weapons and a large amount of drugs with a $500,000 insurance payment he received after the death of his pregnant wife. Pfc. Michael Burnett pleads guilty and agrees to testify against his FEAR comrades. In 2012, seven more people are arrested in connection with FEAR’s activities. In April 2013, the Army charges Aguigui with killing his wife, whose death was initially ruled accidental, and their unborn child. In July 2013, Aguigui pleads guilty in the murders of York and Roark, and is sentenced to life in prison. Two other soldiers, Pvt. Christopher Salmon and Sgt. Anthony Peden, are expected to be tried in the double murder in 2014. A court martial for Aguigui in his family’s death was also expected.

Friday, August 1, 2014

A Moderate GOP Congressman's Slide to the Right


Leonard Lance is a Republican running for his third term as New Jersey Congressman from the 7th Congressional District. This is among the wealthiest Congressional Districts in the country. Lance was elected because he was considered a moderate, but over time the whole GOP has pulled hard to the right. Here is the voting record for this "moderate" Republican just over the past month on some key legislation. This isn't is complete voting record for the past month but it shows how he voted on the most contested pieces of legislation.



HR 4935 - Child Tax Credit Improvement Act of 2014


Passage of this bill has both pros and cons.

Pros: This law would index the current $1,000/child tax credit to inflation. This would automatically increase the amount of this tax credit each year going forward. This is a good thing.

Cons: 1. This law would raise income eligible for a Child Tax Credit to families making between $110,000 to $140,000 per year. This income group is in the top 5% of wage earners and they clearly do not need this tax break more than, say, a child in need of a federally funding lunch at school. We don't need to give more tax breaks to the already well off.

2. At the same time that it raises income eligibility for wealthier Americans this law does not extend enhanced benefits to poor families that is scheduled to expire in 2018. Expiration of that extended benefit will cost poor families over $1,000 per year.  We have got to stop making life ever more difficult for the poor.

3. Under current federal law employers are required to obtain federal taxpayer ID numbers for undocumented aliens who work for them and to collect both payroll and income taxes for these employees (Many people are unaware that at least 2.3 million undocumented aliens pay their fair share of income and payroll taxes each year). The bill requires that recipients of the tax credit have Social Security numbers. This bill blocks unauthorized immigrants who work and pay their taxes from collecting Child Tax Credits on their Income Tax returns. As it stands, most of these immigrants will never receive any Social Security benefits either, despite paying into the system their whole life. They help float the whole system for the rest of us citizens. Now we are going to tax them at a higher rater than we tax citizens. This is another attack on unauthorized residents, particularly those who have been here for decades and contribute so much to this country.

Leonard Lance voted YES for this bill.



H Amendment 1040 - Prohibits Implementation of Certain Climate Assessments

Leonard Lance voted YES for this bill.

Passage of this bill blocks already appropriated funding needed to prepare several of the federal governments annual climate assessment reports including:

· The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report;

· The United States Global Climate Research Program National Climate Assessment; or

· The United Nation's Agenda 21 sustainable development plan.

Leonard Lance voted YES for this bill to block funding for these assessments.




H Amendment 1012 - Prohibits Federal Agencies from Contracting with Businesses Chartered in Bermuda or in the Cayman Islands

This bill Prohibits Federal Agencies from entering into contracts with businesses that are chartered in Bermuda or in the Cayman Islands in order to avoid paying US taxes.

Leonard Lance voted NO which means federal agencies cannot reject contract bids from companies that evade US taxes.




H Amendment 1098 - Prohibits District of Columbia from Implementing Certain Firearm Laws

Passage of this law would effectively prevent the District of Columbia (Washington, DC) from enforcing any of the districts gun control legislation, apparently allowing guns to be openly carried in the district.

Leonard Lance voted YES for this bill. (Isn't it time to give DC a right to vote in Congress?)



H Res 676 - Providing for Authority to Initiate Litigation for Actions by the President or Other Executive Branch Officials Inconsistent with Their Duties Under the Constitution of the United States

This bill Provided the Authority to Initiate Litigation for Actions by the President or Other Executive Branch Officials Inconsistent with Their Duties Under the Constitution of the United States. A vote to pass a resolution that authorizes the Speaker of the House of Representatives to initiate a civil action on behalf of the House of Representatives against the President of the United States for certain purposes.

Leonard Lance voted YES for this bill. He wants to sue President Obama for trying to govern the country while Congress is unable to pass any meaningful legislation on the most urgent issues of the day. 

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

A Peek Behind The Curtains Of War

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW
I read a comment posted elsewhere today by an Israeli living in Israel right now during this latest conflict with Hamas in Palestine . On one side Hamas does not speak for the hearts and minds of the every day people living in Palestine. Many Palestinians feel as if they are held hostage by Hamas while Israeli shells kill innocent victims. On the other side some Israelis no longer recognize their neighbors who have grown hard and belligerent. Hate and blood-lust are spreading among the citizens, changing the character of who they are as a people. I was deeply moved. I see now that it is as if there are two Israels and two Palestines, one visible to the outside world and one hidden from view. The conflict we see hides greater conflict and suffering in the hearts and souls of people on both sides. My own heart aches for the humanity that is dying with each new casualty in this war.

Monday, July 28, 2014

Inequality on a Global Scale (literally)

The cartoon below is from the great editorial cartoonist Stuart Carlson. It highlights with humor a very serious global economic condition, growing wealth inequality.


http://www.gocomics.com/stuartcarlson/2014/06/20#.U9Zns_ldXfJ (Go and enjoy his other cartoons.)


Allow me to breakdown the math for you. These figures work out to an average of $486 per poor person vs. $20 billion per rich person. This is not a measure of income but a measure of wealth, or capital.

Another important math fact from this illustration: If you have $20 billion in capital and earn an average return on investments of 4% a year, and if you lavishly spend $1 million per month on your lifestyle, at the end of 50 years you will still have $140 billion left for your children to inherit. That's right, if you have seven children they would each get close to the 20 billion that you started out with.

This is the crisis of capital that we face. This fact is among the findings of economist Thomas Piketty in his recent book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century. Within just a few generations almost all the wealth on the planet will be handed down from parents to children. Almost no new fortunes will be made through the earnings of those who have to work for a living. We will effectively return to a feudal system even here in the United States and abroad. The phenomenon is global. The quicker national and global population stabilize or decline the faster wealth will concentrate among the wealthy.

All we have to do to return to a feudal society is... do nothing.

Someone on facebook asked me, "Is it really the zero-sum game that these breakdowns of wealth distribution always seem to imply?"  Good question! Is it the case that the growing wealth of the wealthy must come at the expense of growing poverty Or, doesn't the growth of capital lift all ships?

When you look at national and global income-to-capital averages you see what looks like fairly stable ratios. Growing capital wealth and growth in income seem to balance. But look a littler closer and you see that more of the population falls into poverty as the value of capital grows at compounded rates. So yes, there is more national income, but there is an ever larger percentage of income coming from capital investments and going to the wealthy.  As capital becomes the main source of income, the real earnings of wage earners stretches and collapses at the lower end of the economic scale.  For the middle class, it is like being caught between the gravitational fields of two black holes... one created by poverty and  the other by capital wealth

Sunday, July 27, 2014

War "Statistics": The New York Times Deceives Again

* * * G U E S T   B L O G G E R * * *  
by Gil Lavi
July 25, 2014


The "Daily Tally" in the New York Times, a casual-sounding infographic, presents a side-by-side count of casualties and missiles in Gaza and Israel. Although it is ostensibly one of the clearest representations of violence, it is seriously misleading.

War photography can be powerful, moving, and shocking; and data to prove a point can be reassuring, if often falsely. It is the very power of numbers, graphics, and photographs that makes them at the same time compelling ways to prove a point, and lousy ways of explaining what is really going on.

During World War II, it is estimated that 378,000 German civilians were killed in British air raids, compared to only 62,000 British civilians killed in German air raids. Knowing this, however, does little to help understand the nature of the conflict.

The New York Times's Daily Tally is as political as the map represented in it. The visualization quantifies two elements related to the conflict: the number of deaths, and the number of attacks. It does not reveal who started the latest round of battle or why; who the dead are; how many civilians live under constant threat of indiscriminate shooting, or how that number accumulated over time. The numbers simply attempt authoritatively to represent an amount violence in the air, devoid of all context.


The New York Times "Daily Tally" infographic is seriously misleading, its numbers devoid of all context. (Image source: Screenshot of nytimes.com)

Karen Yourish and Josh Keller, its authors, refer to these hostilities as another volley in the "Israeli-Palestinian Conflict." They could just as easily, and more accurately, have framed the events as, "the conflict between Israel, Hamas and its Palestinian hostages." I suggest this as a title because it signals to viewers that this conflict is more nuanced than the black-and-white conflict presented. Most Palestinians might even reject Hamas's aggression towards Israel: a 2013 survey conducted by the Ramallah-based organization, Arab World for Research & Development wrote that 65% of Palestinians opposed a new intifada, 95% of Gazans supported a new round of elections, and 44% of Palestinians preferred the Fatah approach.

The Daily Tally, favoring a more simplistic formula that implicitly frames the conflict as one between good and evil, obfuscates these distinctions. It also neglects to inform readers that as many as 70% of the Israelis support a Palestinian state backed by the UN, according to a survey done by Hebrew University's Harry S. Truman Research Institute. Instead, the Daily Tally simply demands to be frequently refreshed -- counting the dead while ignoring the demands of the living.

Maps, images, and infographics can, of course, easily become the instruments of promoting particular political ideologies, and might even have been chosen for that reason. By choosing to represent only particular aspects of a story, however, the people who post the Daily Talley know they are capable of swaying opinion and motivating viewers to think about a situation in a particular way. But that is not "all the news that is fit to print;" that is propaganda.

Creating compelling clickbait in the form of infographics is a disturbing trend in news today. Journalists would be more credible if, instead, they were even interested in embracing a more complete approach to communicating authentic stories, rather than competing for the bloodiest image. It would be refreshing if journalists would recommit themselves to promoting the truth, as closely as they could, behind the images and numbers they present. In promoting this partial and often false knowledge, it is easy to inculcate a misguided sense of righteousness on both sides. In the search for truth, infographics, images, and numbers give only the illusion of knowledge. The real thing often looks quite different.


Gil Lavi is a writer and former Middle East news photographer who focuses in his work on the research of images, maps and graphics from the Middle East.
Originally published by Gatestone Institute 


Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Water, Detroit and the Essentials of Life

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

Recent news accounts of the massive water shut-offs by the City of Detroit has drawn national and international attention to this essential utility that we sometimes take for granted. Over 17,000 residents have had their water shut off in that city for non-payment. About 12% of the 90,000 Detroit utility customers are delinquent by more than 60 days, and nearly half of the water customers are behind in payments (the latter fact according to an LA Times report). Since April of this year the city has targeted shut offs for 4,000 residents per week who are $150 or more in arrears.

Image Credit: www.waterpurifier.org



The delinquency rates aren't new. Detroit is a shrinking city with lots of poor residents left behind. The city is bankrupt. The aggressive enforcement measures towards those behind in their bill is new. City management official claim that the water and sewer utility has been plagued by corruption, incompetence and inadequate maintenance for decades, and is seriously in debt. The utility's bond rating is Baa with $5.4 billion in bond obligations. Moody's Financial Ratio Analysis places the utilities debt ratio at around 90%.

Detroit is currently run by an appointed emergency manager selected by the Governor under a controversial new Michigan law. The emergency manager supersedes all elected authority in the city and has nearly absolute power. Pressure to shut off delinquent residential water customers comes under his authority. 

The move to turn off the water is controversial on several levels. Delinquent commercial and industrial customers are apparently not being targeted for cut offs. Residents claim their bills are excessive and State assistance isn't forthcoming with any assistance. Community organizations have appealed to the United Nations. The U.N. recognizes access to water as a basic human right and holds that it is a violation of human rights to cut off people who legitimately cannot pay. The Detroit authorities claim that many residents intentionally don't pay water bills, thus contributing to the crisis, a claim that citizen advocacy groups deny. There are rumors that the municipal owned utility might be sold to a private company, raising suspicions that this has been the plan all along. The water shut off policy has lead to angry street protests.

To understand Detroit's situation it is helpful to step back first and look more broadly at water utilities here and abroad.

Water Utility Rates are on the Rise
An article last year by Brett Walton at the "Circle of Blue" reported that: "Water prices in 30 major U.S. cities again grew at a pace faster than inflation, according to Circle of Blue’s annual survey of water rates for single-family residential customers. Water prices increased an average of 6.7 percent in these metropolitan areas, a slower rate than in recent years but well above the 2.1 percent increase in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index for 2012. The median increase in water prices was 6.2 percent."

A 2000 survey by the U.S. Census Bureau found that, "The average annual cost of water and waste water for a household that pays directly for service is $476 per year, ranging from $334 in Nebraska to $721 in Hawaii." That figure works out to about $40 per month while an EPA website says: "American household spends, on average, only $523 per year on water and waste water charges... " That works out to a U.S. average of $43.58 per month for water and sewer.

In a recent USA TODAY article entitled "Nation's water costs rushing higher" it was reported that: 
"While most Americans worry about gas and heating oil prices, water rates have surged in the past dozen years, according to a USA TODAY study of 100 municipalities. Prices at least doubled in more than a quarter of the locations and even tripled in a few.[snip] Monthly costs topped $50 for consumers in Atlanta, Seattle and San Diego who used 1,000 cubic feet of water, a typical residential consumption level in many areas.

There is also a water and sewer industry report prepared in 2012/2013 by Black and Veatch, a private firm. This report says the cost of water in Seattle, for example, was $8.19 per 1.000 gallons, not including the sewer charges. The combined monthly bill for sewer and water in Seattle was $177.93 per month for residential customers using 7,500 gallons, according to this report.

Meanwhile in Detroit, according to the Black and Veatch report, the monthly water and combined sewer and water rates for residential customers using 7500 gallons per month was $24.12 and 70.89 respectively. So which figures are correct?

It turns out that water and sewer utility prices are deceptively difficult to understand or to compare from city to city. There are different units of measurement, different seasonal schedules, peak and off-peak metering and different rate structures. Also, in cities especially, water and sewer rates are separately billed but inseparable because water use is the measure of sewer use in most cases. Billing is combined. Sewer rates are generally higher, often double the water rates. Comparing water pricing without including sewer pricing can be very misleading. Finally, to get a full picture of a municipal utility overall, it is important to compare the rates for commercial water/sewer uses and the wholesale rates the utility charges industries.

An Apples to Apples Comparison
The table below directly compares the published water and sewer rates for Detroit and Seattle (converted to dollars/1,000 gallons). Seattle was selected for comparison because it was one of the cities mention in the USA Today article as having the highest rates. The data is from both city websites. 

At first look it appears that Seattle water and sewer prices are significantly higher than in Detroit. The average Seattle resident uses 3,740 gallons of water per month for a combined water/sewer bill of $112/mo. compared with $62/mo. in Detroit. But when you take a closer look you see that Seattle has a two tier residential rate. The published rate is for residents who can afford it while those families making less than 70% of the city's median income receive a 50% discount. The discount only applies to low wage families who aren't eligible for HUD (Section 8) federal assistance, and the municipal utility actively helps low wage customers apply for federal aid if eligible. They also have programs to help families conserve water and they have very flexible payment plans for any residents who fall behind according to the spokesperson with whom I talked. Shutting off water to a customer would not be considered for residents who owe less than around $1,000.

Detroit, a city with a median family income 25% lower than Seattle, has flat rates. It offers no low income discounts. As a result, the average low income water/sewer bill in Detroit is higher than in Seattle.

To complete the look at water and sewer utilities in these two cities it is important to compare rates for retail commercial and wholesale water customers as well. The information on the websites is a little more difficult to extract in this area. The graph below is my best attempt. 


What jumps out here is the different rate structures in these two cities. Commercial rates in Seattle are somewhat higher than in Detroit, the monthly minimum and maximum wholesale facility charges are significantly higher. Seattle also has a peek commercial water rate that is higher than off-peak to encourage conservation. Meanwhile the difference in the maximum and minimum facility charges in the two cities is 13 times and 38 times higher in Seattle. This suggests that there may be some latitude for Detroit to raise commercial and wholesale water/sewer utility rates to help offset the current financial short fall. Additionally, the Detroit utility could also consider raising residential rates for customers who can afford the increase and discounting rates for low wage earners, as Seattle does.

In the meantime, Detroit should look at the creative collection alternative already practiced in other states and try to find effective alternatives to shutting off water to so many of the residents they are honor bound serve. Access to water is an essential human right and cutting off resident from water should be a last resort. Just reviewing the rate structure suggests possibilities that may not have been considered yet.

A Global Perspective
How do U.S. water rate compare with the cost of water in other cities around the world?

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development ( OECD ) conducted two surveys of residential water tariffs in 1999 and in 2007-08, using a reference consumption of 15 cubic meters per household per month. The 2007-08 survey covered more than 150 cities in all 30 OECD member countries. The survey does not claim to be representative. The OECD survey was complemented by a survey of the industry information service Global Water Intelligence (GWI) conducted in 2007-2008 in parallel with the second OECD survey. The 2008 GWI survey covered 184 utilities in OECD countries and 94 utilities in non-OECD countries. GWI has repeated its survey every year from 2009 to 2012, increasing the number of utilities surveyed to 310 in 2012.

When you convert the OECE findings to US gallons the results indicate that the average water rate in the 310 global cities surveyed is $7.50/1,000 gallons. The range of water rates vary greatly from $0.11 per 1,000 gal. in Saudi Arabia, to $34.86 per 1,000 gal. in Denmark. Then there are also countries, such as Ireland, where water is delivered to households free of charge.

The benchmark for monthly water use in the OECD survey was 15 cubic meters per month, or 3,963 gallons per month, compared with 7,481 gallons per month in the United States. As the graph below shows, U.S. households use more water than do households in most other countries. In the examples above, the difference represents an 88% higher rate of water use in the U.S.


To complete the comparison it is important to acknowledge that higher volumes of water used per household in the US lowers the cost per gallon. In the USA TODAY article, greater conservation of water by customers was named as one of the reasons for higher water rates. When you factor in the average water use in the US with the benchmark estimate of average monthly use in the OECD study, residents in Atlanta, Seattle and San Diego are paying approximate $50 per month for water while residents in foreign cities are paying about $30 per month.

If U.S. water consumption dropped to the lower global levels, residents in the cities mentioned above would pay about $27 dollars per month. However, lowering water use that much in the U.S. would significantly raise the cost per gallon. There are so many variables and assumptions in all of the underlying data that this is a rough guess.

Keep in mind also that the cost of water for the data cited here is for cities, yet it isn't clear if the figures given include sewer costs. The quality of sewer systems and their associated costs vary greatly, both nationally and across the globe. The best that we can gather from this very rough comparison, then, is the impression that current water rates in the U.S. are somewhat comparable with average global rates.

Water is an essential part of our daily life and a human right. It is a finite resource that is growing in scarcity. Social and environment forces are combining to raise water prices everywhere. The trend in rising prices is likely to accelerate as U.S. water conservation become more essential to meet our basic water needs, and this article doesn't even touch on agricultural where most of our water is used. With scarcity comes increased commercial opportunities and there will be growing pressure to privatize municipal water utilities for profit. Balancing commercial interests with human needs and human rights is a conversation we need to have. Increasing public awareness is critically important for our future and the media will need to do more and better reporting to inform the public.

Friday, July 4, 2014

July 4th - What I Celebrate



We are the first nation on Earth founded on principles of human government rather than tribe, race, religion, culture or any other accident of birth. That is what I celebrate today. I celebrate a nation that serves a richly diverse people, respecting the human rights of each person under a system of equal justice for all, while protecting us and promoting our common welfare according to the will of ordinary citizens. Today I do not celebrate this land, which I do love, or our great accomplishments, of which I am proud, but rather the principles on which we were founded. And if we find that we are not living up to those founding principles as best we should, this is the day to renew our commitment to live by those principle that truly define us as Americans.

Friday, June 27, 2014

Oklahoma Earthquakes Shaking Up Fracking Politics

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW
[see updates below]
Earthquakes in Oklahoma are shaking up the politics of its natural gas friendly state government. According to a June 27th article in Energy Wire, Oklahoma's Corporation Commission, under public pressure, will start collecting information and test data on underground injection wells.

The problem is that Oklahoma has become seismically active. Between the months of October and May Oklahoma had more magnitude 3.0 or larger earthquakes (189) than California (with 139). Other reports state that the total number of quakes in Oklahoma is double the number in California. The locations of the quakes closely correspond with fracking sites. State regulators say to need more evidence of the correlation despite the stack of scientific, peer reviewed studies supporting the correlations.
Energy Wire report:
The U.S. Geological Survey reported 40 earthquakes greater than magnitude 2.5 around the world yesterday as of midafternoon -- six of them were in Oklahoma and three were outside this suburb of Oklahoma City.

"You can hear them coming," said Mary Ternes, who lives near Edmond. "You can hear the rumble and then the house shakes."


The largest quake so far measured 5.7 and killed two people back in 2011, but the risk of higher magnitude quakes is growing.

While Oklahoman's are beginning to come out in significant numbers to public hearings to complain, state officials and regulators are taking starting to take the first step to address their concerns.

Energy Wire:
New rules on injection wells, approved by Republican Gov. Mary Fallin last week, will require operators to perform more frequent mechanical integrity tests of disposal wells and keep daily records of the amount of fluids they inject and the pressures they use.

Meanwhile, Skinner said, state regulators have told operators to shut in several injection wells for minor violations such as excessive pressure. The Corporation Commission also held formal hearings on two injection wells proposed near existing faults and asked the operators to do additional monitoring as a condition of approval. Previously, most injection well permits were approved administratively.

According to The Oklahoman newspaper about four-hundred worried resident of Edmond, Oklahoma came out to a meeting this past Thursday evening to express their fear and concerns. Many of them had been awakened by a magnitude 3.5 quake near Edmond in the wee hours of that same morning.

The Oklahoman report:
Oklahoma Geological Survey seismologist Austin Holland said there is no way to know what has caused the unprecedented increase in earthquakes in Oklahoma, although several studies have linked temblors to oil and natural gas activity, particularly wastewater injection wells.

Many residents were no happy with the answers they got at the meeting.

the problem isn't just happening in Oklahoma it's happening in Texas and Ohio and many other states where fracking operations are taking place. Alan Brundrett, the mayor of a small town call Azle, in North Texas, said his town has experienced an unusual number of earthquakes. He is upset by the lack of data and transparency of local fracking operations that make it hard to assess the issues. 

According to an Al Jazeera report:
Brundrett said the Texas Railroad Commission would not draw a link between fracking activities and earthquakes in the meeting, but promised to investigate the matter further.

Ramona Nye, who handles media relations for the Railroad Commission, told Al Jazeera in an emailed statement that the agency "does not have the jurisdictional authority to shut down an injection well based only on the presence of a nearby earthquake.

"There has been no scientific proof that a specific well or wells have caused the Azle-area earthquakes," she said, adding that the commission had hired a seismologist in April who is working to determine any links between fracking and earthquakes.


State geologists in Ohio have already made the case that the quake activity there is the result of fracking activity.

According to a report from International Business Times:
Fracking involves pumping water, sand and chemicals down into wells and horizontal pipes to crack open rock and extract oil and gas. Often, the wastewater created is dumped back into the ground, which according to the U.S. Geological Survey, is linked to a sixfold increase in earthquakes from 2000 to 2011. [snip]

ast month, Ohio regulators indefinitely shut down Hilcorp Energy’s fracking operation near the Pennsylvania border after five earthquakes, one of 3.0 magnitude, rattled Ohioans.


According to Oil Price.Com, an oil and energy news site:
In March, 2014. there was a study entitled “Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: Links between wastewater injection and that 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence,” [snip]The study

focused its research on seismic activity in Oklahoma over the past two years and concluded that a 4.8-magnitude earthquake centered near Prague on 5 November 2011, was "induced" by the injection wells. Two subsequent earthquakes, including a 5.7-magnitude “event” the following day, was the biggest in contemporary state history, were caused by the first earthquake and existing tectonic stresses in the earth.


The growing body of scientific evidence and the growing public concern about fracking are reaching a critical mass and even the most business friendly politicians are starting to feel the ground shift.


Webliography
http://www.koco.com/weather/oklahoma-more-than-doubles-california-in-earthquakes/26673322#!4Xjx3
http://www.eenews.net/energywire/2014/06/27/stories/1060002069
http://newsok.com/edmond-earthquake-town-hall-leaves-attendees-unsatisfied/article/4972923
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/5/13/texas-fracking-earthquakes.html
http://www.ibtimes.com/ohio-says-fracking-caused-earthquakes-will-require-drilling-companies-monitor-seismic-1571443
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/More-Scientific-Evidence-Linking-Fracking-and-Earthquakes.html

Posted 1 minute ago by Brian Lynch

UPDATES: 

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

"Serve and Protect" or "Enforce and Collect" The Changing Character of Local Police

by Brian T. Lynch, MSW

Police come in two basic flavors, I was once told, the "serve and protect" peace officers and the "enforce and collect" officers. These represent (in overly simplified terms) two fundamentally different and incompatible philosophies that are competing for the heart and soul of the profession. I needn't mention which view is winning out since 9/11. Still, the drama playing out among departments also plays out within departments, which may account for some of the local police department infighting described in a recent WNYC News article and how it is costing New Jersey taxpayers. You might not see it at first, but so often the emotional motivations behind what seems like petty disputes are really underlying rifts involving fundamentally different world views. That's what I suspect is happening here in New Jersey and elsewhere around the country, although the WNYC article doesn't mention this.

http://j.mp/1nP5kBV

Good Cop, Bad Cop: How Infighting Is Costing New Jersey Taxpayers

Tuesday, June 17, 2014


WNYC

In the opening account in this article a female officer in Camden, New Jersey, is made Chief of Police. When she inspects the unmarked car that comes with her new promotion she discovers that one of her fellow officers planted crack cocaine in the vehicle to derail both her promotion and her career. Incidents like this reveal just how serious the clash of ideologies can be. In this case it may involve attitudes towards woman. In another example elsewhere in New Jersey an officer was handed a 30 day suspension for loosing an $8 Slim Jim. Such punishments often convey a more personal message. 

I had a good friend who spent his entire career in local police departments. He dedicated himself to serving the public. Sometimes that meant arresting people who endangered others or disturbed the peace, but it also meant engaging with people in the community and going the extra mile to help out local residents in a pinch. In small towns especially it isn't "all bad guys all the time". Narrowing the focus of police work to strictly law enforcement activity results in a jaunted view of the community. My friend was never cynical or jaded by his work, but his outlook on small town policing set him at odds with a segment of his fellow officers. It played out in many internal conflicts and seemingly irrational personnel decisions over the course of his career. In the end he retired early, in part because the hostility he felt in the workplace had taken its toll.

I have other police officer friends, some who are of the "enforce and collect" variety who received negative attention in their careers whenever they strayed a bit from that philosophy. Another person I know who aspires to be a police officer was turned off by the militancy and hardnosed cynicism built into the police training curriculum. Just what does the current police training curriculum look like these days? The public should be asking this question.

What all this really means is that the drama playing out in society as a whole between ultra-conservative ideologies and more mainstream thinking is also playing out in all our public institutions, including police agencies. Local departments are not immune to what affects society as a whole. What's different here is that even small, local police departments shun transparency. While they work for the public they tend to view us as civilians outside of their fraternity. It is hard to penetrate a Departments cultural view. At the same time, there is clearly money and military style equipment flowing into even local law enforcement agencies, which serves to alter the character of local policing.

These changes are real. What is missing, in addition to transparency, is a robust public debate on what role we want local police to play in our communities. Are we aware of the changes character of our local police departments and are we comfortable with those changes?

I just learned of a new report out by the ACLU on the militarization of our police. Of the report they say, "Our neighborhoods are not war zones, and police officers should not be treating us like wartime enemies. Any yet, every year, billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment flows from the federal government to state and local police departments. Departments use these wartime weapons in everyday policing, especially to fight the wasteful and failed drug war, which has unfairly targeted people of color.
You can read their report here:  https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/assets/jus14-warcomeshome-report-web-rel1.pdf

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